The Numbers Behind Mythic Championship IV

This last weekend we got our first large scale Modern event since the banning of Bridge from Below, and there is a lot of interesting data floating around from the event, so I’ve compiled what I believe to be the highlights. I’m gonna start where starting is best; at the start.

MCIV Day One Metagame Breakdown

Deck Players Percentage
Hogaak 98 21.4%
Izzet Phoenix 48 10.5%
Eldrazi Tron 42 9.2%
W/U Control 38 8.3%
Humans 38 8.3%
Jund 36 7.9%
Tron 19 4.2%
Urza Thopter Sword 19 4.2%

I’m going to address the elephant in the room. Hogaak is still on top in terms of metagame share, and it’s over double the share of the next most played deck. Before I begin lamenting the death of my favorite format, let me just say that metagames of these top level, hyper competitive tournaments do not reflect that of the actual metagame. For instance, our Sunday Night Modern event this last weekend had zero Hogaak decks and two Phoenix decks.

Modern will definitely need a little time to adjust, but I genuinely believe this iteration of Hogaak is much easier to fight than the previous.

Other than Hogaak being on top, there’s not much to talk about in terms of metagame. We had a good showing for some of the decks we already know to be on top. The tastiest treat we received from this weekend however was the Urza Thopter Sword deck that was running rampant. Watching the deck reminded me faintly of Legacy High Tide having a child with Modern Second Breakfast.

Day One was over real quick, which then brings us to the next step in our journey.

MCIV Most Played Cards

Card Total Copies Mainboard Copies Sideboard Copies
Leyline of the Void 836 73 763
Faithless Looting 747 747 0
Thoughtseize 497 118 379
Bloodghast 496 496 0
Lightning Bolt 478 471 7
Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis 422 422 0
Stitcher’s Supplier 416 416 0
Vengevine 388 388 0

This confirms my suspicions that people were definitely prepared to hate on graveyards going in to this weekend. I would love to see what decks exactly were mainboarding the Leylines of the Voids. Interesting enough, there were more sideboard copies of Thoughtseize than there were mainboard. Modern is definitely a beast of many forms.

Other than those two notable shout outs, every other most played card is just pieces of Hogaak. So now we’ve got our day one breakdown and card selection out of the way, let’s take a look at what day two looked like.

MCIV Day Two Metagame Breakdown

Deck Players Conversion Rate
Hogaak 70 71.4%
Izzet Phoenix 31 64.6
Eldrazi Tron 28 66.7%
W/U Control 24 63.2%
Humans 23 60.5%
Jund 22 61.1%
Tron 10 52.6%
Urza Thopter Sword 10 52.6%

This part is just a little bit alarming. A conversion rate of 71.4% is pretty dang good. Beatable, but not all the time. Going into this weekend, I can’t imagine anyone came unprepared for graveyard decks, in fact to the contrary, we saw for ourselves that Leyline of the Void was the most played card of the weekend. This is why I’m shocked at Hogaak’s exceptional win rate. It’s not a win rate that calls for the sounding of alarms, it is just a solid conversion to day two.

Other than that small blip, everything looks more or less balanced. Eldrazi Tron had a higher conversion rate than Phoenix did, which I think is related to the amount of hate cards people brought in their side boards.

After all those numbers, let’s get to the Top 8!

MCIV Top 8

Deck Player Placing
Tron Thoralf Severin 1st
Hardened Scales Alvaro Fernandez Torres 2nd
Eldrazi Tron Sean Gifford 4th
Jund Zhiyang Zhang 4th
Hogaak Martin Muller 8th
Mono-Red Phoenix Juan Jose Rodriguez Lopez 8th
Urza Thopter Sword Manuel Lenz 8th
Jund David Mines 8th

For how the tournament started shaping out, boy was the ending great. Super diverse Top 8, with some Urza Thopter Sword even making its way in. This Top 8 has midrange, aggro, and combo, the only thing it’s missing is control. I’ve linked the lists above for the interested.

This weekend turned out to be huge for Modern, Hogaak is still showing a very good meta share, but it can be beat, no matter how many Leyline of the Voids I have to play. If you want to get qualified for the next Mythic Championship, be sure to join us at Game Grid Lehi on September 21 for our 5K Modern Mythic Championship Qualifier.